The Holy Grail?

I am increasingly convinced that a new service needs to be developed in which bar exam takers both RATE and REVIEW bar courses and bar tutors.

First, why do I feel this way? Bar review courses and tutors alike participate in a significant revenue making enterprise. How much $ do they make? If this is not currently quantified by another source, perhaps I can develop an estimate of the market demand (or retain a statistician to do it.) Suffice it to say, the revenue is substantial. If there are 15,000 new bar exam takers in California per year at an estimated average cost of $3,000, that’s $45 Million dollars! If one were to estimate that of the 15,000, about 1/3rd are repeat takers, and assuming that repeat takers do not use a bar review course or tutor, the lower figure is a little over $30 Million.

It seems to me that anyone who has passed the bar exam can hang out a shingle and hawk their services (or books). Bar exam takers hungry to pass the exam, and afraid of the experience (especially repeat takers), will flock to those who promise, “I can help you pass this exam.” However, I have seen few statistics from bar review courses or tutors to back up these promises.

In my quest to find a private tutor, I have been collecting references but collecting these references is hard to do. The tutor will likely provide a reference of those students who have passed the exam but what about those who did not? This is a self-selecting sample, and highly biased. Furthermore, in examining various blogs, bloggers are “shouting out” the names of review companies and tutors in an effort to solicit feedback since there is NO SINGLE SOURCE where exam takers can go to in an effort to learn how “good” the course or tutor really is. One private tutor was vilified by one exam taker, and elevated to “invaluable” by another. This contradictory set of evaluations, however, was sufficient for me to “proceed with caution” as it relates to this particular tutor. Of course, a course or a tutor may receive “bad marks” from people who failed the exam.

In addition, courses or tutors may only take repeaters who came within “inches” of failing the exam and not within “miles.” Again, this is a self-selecting approach to increasing their repeater success rate at passing the bar exam.

For that matter, there is a secondary market for bar exam takers which includes books, lectures, flash cards, and more. While reviews on Amazon.com might be helpful, they are not statistically viable or collected via rigorous market research methodology – these reviews, too, are like the comments offered on blogs. They are interesting, and helpful, but not statistically viable.

Thus, in developing such a rating/review service, one must use traditional market research techniques and random sampling. Since market research was my business for many years, I am well versed in these techniques and given the typical research criteria and “field testing,” I know (not think) that a service can be developed which can judiciously rate/review bar review courses and tutors alike and provide bar exam takers with an independent source of information that can help guide them in selecting the course or tutor that might work best for them. Of course, the individual test taker should still do some research on their own after reviewing the collective reviews and ratings and select a course or tutor that plays to their individual strengths and weaknesses.

Now, to develop a review service, there is more research to be done. I will, therefore, develop a series of small surveys to test the waters and then determine if I have sufficient time and resources to proceed…

In the interim, I invite your comments and concerns, for good or for naught, and look forward to publishing the results of my first, albeit, simple survey with a non-random sample. I’m waiting until there are 100 responses; the response rate is inching forward toward that number and I am already beginning to see a pattern or two. . .For those of you who have responded, thank you!